Fertilizer Swaps
The Fertilizer Market
The global physical fertilizer market had an estimated annual turnover of $500 billion in 2008 with some 1 billion tonnes of raw materials and products traded annually. But this huge market is at the mercy of ever-changing fundamentals.
FIS is tapping this huge potential market with the cleared FIS Fertilizer Swap, a derivative that can be traded standalone or combined with freight or other commodities for full risk management.
FIS has successfully established the FIS fertilizer swaps platform in the Nitrogen (Urea & UAN), DAP, and Ammonia markets to serve a well-established and growing client base.
FIS has been trading swaps settled against the long-standing and robust Fertilizer Index for four years. The addition of clearing will increase trading capacity, improve operational efficiencies and facilitate optional post-trade anonymity, making the product more appealing to participants from outside the industry — particularly financial institutions.
The FIS Fertilizer Swap
The FIS Fertilizer Swap is a cash-settled paper trade settled against the Fertilizer Index, which is produced weekly and represents physical spot prices in the market. The cash-settled swap allows a buyer and a seller (counterparties) to agree on a price in the forward market for a specific fertilizer product for a specified future period.
The swap is an agreement between a buyer and seller to pay the difference between a price agreed upon today and the future price of a specific fertilizer at an agreed point of time. There is no payment until settlement date and therefore no capital outlay.
There is no delivery of physical product and the swap is settled exclusively against the Fertilizer Index price which is produced weekly and represents physical spot market prices.
The Fertilizer Index is a single reference price calculated from three weekly price ranges provided by FertilizerWEEK, FERTECON and FMB using a simple averaging technique. The highest and lowest of the six numbers are discarded, and an arithmetic average is calculated from the four remaining numbers.
Each panelist posts their price ranges every Thursday, reflecting physical business concluded (both spot and nearby forward business for shipment up to 30 days in the case of urea and ammonia, and up to 60 days in the case of DAP).
Contracts Covered
UREA - New Orleans (UNO)
UREA - Yuzhnyy (UYZ)
UREA - Egypt (UNE)
DAP - Tampa (DTA)
DAP - New Orleans (DNO)
UAN - NOLA (UAN)
Lot Size: 500mt - UYZ, DTA, UNE, 500st - UNO, DNO, UAN
Currency: US Dollars
Minimum tick: US$0.0001
Fixed price: The traded price or the previous day's settlement price as supplied end of day by FIS brokers.
Floating price: In respect of daily settlement, the floating price will be the end of day price as supplied by FIS brokers.
In respect of final settlement, the floating price will be the arithmetic average of the relevant weekly indices for that contract as supplied by FIS for that month.
The index publishers are FertilizerWEEK, Fertecon and FMB.
Contract series: Front 6 months, 4 quarters (UNO 5 quarters)
Expiry: Last publication day of the relevant index in the contract month ie the last business Thursday of every month. Exception - December contracts will expire on the penultimate Thursday, as there is no publication of an index in the week prior to New Year. Where the last Thursday of the month is a non-business day, the expiry day will be the first business day preceding.
Settlement: The first business day following the expiry day
Delivery: Cash settled monthly against the average of all the relevant indices for that contract during the month
Business Days: UK Business Days
The FIS Fertilizer swap offers a number of benefits
Natural sellers, such as fertilizer producers can lock in margin progressively for a proportion of their length. Traders can lock in margin in a rising or falling market. Wholesalers, distributors or industrial buyers can secure forward prices for inputs to underpin downstream retail or end-user sales. End-users can secure a forward price and manage exposure to physical market volatility.
Swaps provide an opportunity to test the strength of forward prices and the depth of the market without committing product or capital. Building a swaps position in tandem with a physical book allows margins to be secured and management of exposure to extreme price changes in the physical market.
The FIS fertilizer swap leverages a well-established and a growing client base which includes some of the largest trading companies in the world.
To assist in your decision-making we have included two trading examples below - from both the trader and producer perspective.
Fertilizer Swap - Trader Example
A trader wins a tender award in November for 10,000 tonnes of prilled UREA for delivery in January (all prices are assumed):
- Award level $500 per tonne CFR
- Less: Freight + Costs $20 per tonne
- Net $480 pt
- Profit Margin $10 pt
- Cover price sought $470 pt
- Physical sale at $520 pt cfr will provide a $10 pt profit margin if the trader can cover at $470 pt fob
- Trader's exposure: sold/short physical 10,000t
- Hedge suggestion: buy/long 10,000t FIS swap at $470 pt to lock in forward price using FIS swap at $470 pt
Scenario A
Physical market FIRMS - spot physical prices rise, January trades at an average $485 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $485 for the month of January.
The trader has covered in the physical market at the prevailing rate of $485 pt fob, but has hedged his position with the FIS cash settled swap ($470 pt) which is settled against the Fertilizer Index value for the month.
- FIS Swap Position $470pt
- Fertilizer Index avg. Jan. $485pt
- Differential $15pt
- Quantity = 10,000t
- FIS swap settlement: 10,000t x $15pt = $150,000 (Seller pays Buyer)
- Trader receives $150,000 cash settlement.
Overall position
- Physical cover (10,000t × $485pt) $4,850,000
- Less: FIS swap settlement $150,000
- Total Cost of Cover $4,700,000
- $4,700,000/10,000t (total volume) = $470 pt fob
Without the FIS swap, the trader would have lost all profit margin by covering physical at prevailing spot of $485 pt FOB. With the FIS swap, the trader achieves overall cost of cover at $470 and a margin of $10pt* profit on the trade.
Scenario B
Physical market SOFTENS - spot physical prices in January trade at an average $455 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $455 for the month of January.
- The trader covers in the physical market at $455 pt fob, but has hedged his position with the FIS swap:
- FIS Swap Position $470pt
- Fertilizer Index avg. Jan $455pt
- Differential $15pt
- Quantity = 10,000t
Overall position
- Physical cover (10,000t x $455pt) $4,550,000
- Plus : FIS swap settlement $ 150,000 (Buyer pays the Seller)
- Total Cost of Cover $4,550,000
- $4,550,000/10,000t (total volume) = $455 pt fob
By using an FIS swap, despite the physical market value falling below the trader's cash-settled swap level in this example, the trader still achieves overall cost of cover at $455 and a margin of $10pt* profit on the trade.
*Please note: FIS broker commission is USD 0.50 (50 cents) per ton which should be deducted from the final calculation.
Fertilizer Swap - Producer Example
Assume that in December, a producer has 20,000 tonnes of physical Urea to place in February. The spot prompt price is $490 per tonne (pt) FOB Yuzhnyy. However, the producer/seller anticipates prices weakening going forward and likely to fall below $480 pt fob in February.
Using an FIS cash-settled swap, the producer is able to offset a possible decrease in physical prices as follows (all prices are assumed):
Bidders are at $480 pt FOB Yuzhnyy on FIS swaps for February. The producer (seller) contracts with a bidder (buyer) for the full quantity:
- FIS swap 20,000 t x $480 pt agreed for February
- Physical market SOFTENS - spot physical prices in January trade at an average $470 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $470 for the month of January
- Physical market: 20,000 t × 470 pt = $9,400,000 (physical sales revenue)
- FIS swap $480 pt
- Fertilizer Index average (February) $470 pt
- Differential $10 pt
- FIS cash-settled swap settlement: 20,000 t × $10 pt = $200,000
- Buyer pays producer/seller $200,000 cash settlement
- Total Revenue = Physical sales + FIS cash settled swap
- $9,400,000 (physical) + $200,000 (FIS swap) = $9,600,000
- $9,600,000 / 20,000 t = $480.00 pt
In this example, the producer/seller achieves an average return of $480* pt despite the fall in physical prices to $470.
*Please note - FIS broker commission is USD 0.50 (50 cents) per ton which should be deducted from the final calculation.
For more information about FIS fertilizer swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact ferts@freightinvestor.com.