Fertilizer Swaps
The Fertilizer Market
The global physical fertilizer market had an estimated annual turnover of $500 billion in 2008 with some 1 billion tonnes of raw materials and products traded annually. But this huge market is at the mercy of ever-changing fundamentals.
FIS is tapping this huge potential market with the cleared FIS Fertilizer Swap, a derivative that can be traded standalone or combined with freight or other commodities for full risk management.
FIS has successfully established the FIS fertilizer swaps platform in the Nitrogen (Urea & UAN), DAP, and Ammonia markets to serve a well-established and growing client base.
FIS has been trading swaps settled against the long-standing and robust Fertilizer Index for four years. The addition of clearing will increase trading capacity, improve operational efficiencies and facilitate optional post-trade anonymity, making the product more appealing to participants from outside the industry — particularly financial institutions.
The FIS Fertilizer Swap
The FIS Fertilizer Swap is a cash-settled paper trade settled against the Fertilizer Index, which is produced weekly and represents physical spot prices in the market. The cash-settled swap allows a buyer and a seller (counterparties) to agree on a price in the forward market for a specific fertilizer product for a specified future period.
The swap is an agreement between a buyer and seller to pay the difference between a price agreed upon today and the future price of a specific fertilizer at an agreed point of time. There is no payment until settlement date and therefore no capital outlay.
There is no delivery of physical product and the swap is settled exclusively against the Fertilizer Index price which is produced weekly and represents physical spot market prices.
The Fertilizer Index is a single reference price calculated from three weekly price ranges provided by FertilizerWEEK, FERTECON and FMB using a simple averaging technique. The highest and lowest of the six numbers are discarded, and an arithmetic average is calculated from the four remaining numbers.
Each panelist posts their price ranges every Thursday, reflecting physical business concluded (both spot and nearby forward business for shipment up to 30 days in the case of urea and ammonia, and up to 60 days in the case of DAP).
The Fertilizer Index derives an average price from spot price ranges for each product and physical cover may be booked within a price range, not necessarily at the spot average as represented by the fertilizer index.
For this reason, the spot physical price and the Fertilizer Index price may not converge and there is some basis risk and imperfect hedging. However, it should be noted that substantial physical volumes are contracted based on the Fertilizer Index formula price which allows perfect hedging.
The FIS Fertilizer swap offers a number of benefits.
Natural sellers, such as fertilizer producers can lock in margin progressively for a proportion of their length. Traders can lock in margin in a rising or falling market. Wholesalers, distributors or industrial buyers can secure forward prices for inputs to underpin downstream retail or end-user sales. End-users can secure a forward price and manage exposure to physical market volatility.
Swaps provide an opportunity to test the strength of forward prices and the depth of the market without committing product or capital. Building a swaps position in tandem with a physical book allows margins to be secured and management of exposure to extreme price changes in the physical market.
The FIS fertilizer swap leverages a well-established and a growing client base which includes some of the largest trading companies in the world.
Assume that in November, a producer has 40,000 tonnes of physical Urea to place in January. The spot prompt price is $250 per tonne (pt) FOB Yuzhnyy. However, the producer/seller anticipates prices weakening going forward and likely to fall below $240 pt fob in January.
Using an FIS cash settled swap, the producer is able to offset a possible decrease in physical prices as follows (all prices are assumed):
Bidders are at $240 pt FOB Yuzhnyy on FIS swaps for January. The producer (seller) contracts with a bidder (buyer) for the full quantity:
- FIS swap 40,000 t × $240 pt agreed for January
- Physical market SOFTENS — spot physical prices in January trade at an average $230 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $230 for the month of January
- Physical market: 40,000 t × 230 pt = $9,200,000 (physical sales revenue)
- FIS swap $240 pt
- Fertilizer Index average (January) $230 pt
- Differential $10 pt
- FIS cash-settled swap settlement: 40,000 t × $10 pt = $400,000
- Buyer pays producer/seller $400,000 cash settlement
- Total Revenue = Physical sales + FIS cash settled swap
- $9,200,000 (physical) + $400,000 (FIS swap) = $9,600,000
- $9,600,000 / 40,000 t = $240.00 pt
In this example, the producer/seller achieves an average return of $240* pt despite the fall in physical prices to $230.
Partial swap — The producer/seller has 40,000 tonnes of physical Urea to place in September and anticipates prices weakening, but decides to hedge just 20,000 t using an FIS cash settled swap.
Market prices weaken in January — physical sale prices fall to average at $230 pt:
- FIS swap 20,000 t × $240 pt agreed for January
- FIS swap $240 pt
- Fertilizer Index average (January) $230 pt
- Differential $10 pt
- FIS cash-settled swap settlement: 20,000 t × $10 pt = $200,000
- Buyer pays producer/seller $200,000 cash settlement
- Total Revenue = Physical sales + FIS cash settled swap
- $9,200,000 (physical) + $200,000 (FIS swap) = $ 9,400,000
- $9,400,000 / 40,000 t = $ 235 pt
In this example the producer/seller achieves an average return of $235* pt despite the fall in physical prices to $230 pt in January.
*Please note — FIS broker commission is USD 0.50 (50 cents) per ton which should be deducted from the final calculation.
A trader wins a tender award in November for 10,000t prilled UREA for delivery in January (all prices are assumed):
- Award level $280 pt CFR
- Less: Freight + Costs $ 20 pt
- Net $260 pt
- Profit Margin $10 pt
- Sought cover price $250 pt
- Physical sale at $300 pt cfr will provide a $10 pt profit margin if the trader can cover at $250 pt fob
- Trader’s exposure: sold /short physical 10,000t
- Hedge suggestion: buy /long 10,000t FIS swap at $250 pt to lock in forward price using FIS swap at $250 pt
Scenario A: Physical market FIRMS – spot physical prices rise, January trades at an average $265 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $265 for the month of January.
The trader covers in the physical market at the prevailing rate of $265 pt fob, but has hedged his position with the FIS cash settled swap ($250 pt) which is settled against the Fertilizer Index value for the month.
- FIS Swap Position $250pt
- Fertilizer Index avg. Jan. $265pt
- Differential $15pt
- Quantity = 10,000t
- FIS swap settlement : 10,000t x $15pt = $150,000 (Seller pays Buyer)
- Trader receives $150,000 cash settlement.
- Overall position:
- Physical cover (10,000t × $265pt) $2,650,000
- Less: FIS swap settlement $150,000
- Total Cost of Cover $2,500,000
- $2,500,000 / 10,000t (total volume) = $250 pt fob
Without the FIS swap, the trader would have lost all profit margin by covering physical at prevailing spot of $265 pt FOB. With the FIS swap, the trader achieves overall cost of cover at $250 and a margin of $10pt* profit on the trade.
Scenario B: Physical market SOFTENS – spot physical prices in January trade at an average $235 pt fob. Fertilizer Index = $235 for the month of January.
- The trader covers in the physical market at $235 pt fob, but has hedged his position with the FIS swap:
- FIS Swap Position $250pt
- Fertilizer Index avg. Jan $235pt
- Differential $15pt
- Quantity = 10,000t
- Overall position:
- Physical cover (10,000t × $235pt) $2,350,000
- Plus : FIS swap settlement $ 150,000 (Buyer pays the Seller)
- Total Cost of Cover $2,500,000
- $2,500,000 / 10,000t (total volume) = $250 pt fob
By using an FIS swap, despite the physical market value falling below the trader’s cash settled swap level in this example, the trader still achieves overall cost of cover at $250 and a margin of $10pt* profit on the trade.
*Please note: FIS broker commission is USD 0.50 (50 cents) per ton which should be deducted from the final calculation.
For more information about FIS fertilizer swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact ferts@freightinvestor.com.